When America’s major mobile sportsbooks released NFL win totals in the spring, Caesars and most others pegged the Detroit Lions at over/under 6.5 victories.
Obviously, that means their loss total would be set at 10.5, and if things broke that way in 2022, it wouldn’t really look like much of a success, although it would more than double last year’s win total.
Caesars puts Detroit Lions win total at 6.5 for 2022 NFL season. Agree or disagree?
— Mike O’Hara (@MikeOHaraNFL) April 1, 2022
Today, the Lions win total sits at … 6.5 (-115) at DraftKings. Not exactly a lot of movement in that market.
However, this is shaping up as a real bettors vs. the book type situation, as over at BetMGM, 94%(!) of the Lions’ win total bets are on the over, and 95% of the money as well. And despite all of that money pouring in on the Lions, the team’s odds to make the playoffs have actually risen in some spots in the past month. For instance, they’re up to +450 at Caesars (but down to +375 at PointsBet), despite being +400 at most books less than a month ago.
.@Lions finished 3-13-1 last season but 6 of those losses were one-score games (8 pts or less).
Lions win total this season is 6.5 (over -125).
94% of bets are on the OVER at @BetMGM.
— John Ewing 🦁 (@johnewing) August 1, 2022
Even the Coach of the Year market has seen a slump for the Lions, as Dan Campbell can be had for as much as +2000 on PointsBet. He’s still +1200 at BetMGM, which is — based on those win total bets — probably looking to cut its losses if the Lions surprise.
Of course, all three of those markets haven’t yet seen the potential of the Hard Knocks bump, which debuts on HBO on Aug. 9. There is probably a 50/50 chance America falls head over heels for this scrappy squad, led by the kneecap biter himself.
brb running through a brick wall for dan campbell https://t.co/DDAczMuMx6
— Justin Freeman (@JustinFreeman18) August 2, 2022
A few other spots
Meanwhile, in other markets …
Aiden Hutchinson is now the favorite to take home Defensive Rookie of the Year, with odds as high as +575 on PointsBet (and +500 everywhere else). A few weeks ago, Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner was the favorite, but he’s dropped to +1100.
The Lions remain at +1000 on DraftKings to win the NFC North, though they have fallen to +6000 longshots (down from +6600) to win the NFC outright. And, last but not least, the Lions remain 150/1 shots to win the Super Bowl. Stranger things, though, right?
Photo: David Reginek/USA TODAY